Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has emerged as the clear early favorite of progressives resistant to Hillary Clinton’s charms in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he’s drawing big crowds.
“He has certainly picked up some buzz,” said former Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Scott Brennan.
Sanders trailed Clinton by just 8 percentage points with Democrats in a recent New Hampshire poll from CNN, and by 19 points in a recent Quinnipiac University poll of Iowa, though Clinton has had larger leads in other state-level polling.
Sanders recently drew 10,000 people to a rally in liberal Madison, Wis., and thousands have gathered to see him from Maine to Minneapolis. With little organization, he raised $15 million in his first three months as a candidate — one-third of what Clinton brought in but a hefty sum driven by small online donations.
Still, it remains to be seen whether Sanders, a quirky, 73-year-old self-described democratic socialist, can give Clinton a real scare.
His fans point out he was talking about income inequality long before it became cool and is tapping into a cultural moment of fury with what he calls the “billionaire class.”
And he’s channeling the emotions of Democrats who think Clinton is too careful on the trail and cozy to Wall Street.
“Hillary sounds more presidential because she talks in shades of gray. But Bernie Sanders has the luxury of talking in black and white, and that’s exciting,” said Thomas Henderson, the chairman of the Polk County Democrats, Iowa's largest county organization.
Sanders’ cantankerous, doom-and-gloom style delighted roughly 400 progressive activists gathered Thursday in Arlington, Va., who chanted, “Bernie! Bernie!”
Clinton’s campaign says it’s taking his rise seriously, though public comments may be aimed at raising expectations for Sanders.
“We are worried about him, sure. He will be a serious force for the campaign, and I don’t think that will diminish,” Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri said on MSNBC on Monday.
Polls show that Democrats like Clinton, but they’re having trouble getting excited about her.
“Right now 2016 feels more like a slog,” said Brennan. “She’s been a public figure for a long time. So it’s a little harder to generate that newness and enthusiasm that Barack Obama was able to capture and Senator Sanders is capturing now.” But much of Sanders’ momentum comes from consolidating the insurgent liberal vote that has long failed to pick the Democratic nominee.
Many compare his rise to past left-wing insurgents who flamed out like Howard Dean in 2004 and Bill Bradley in 2000.
CHRISTOPHER DILTS/BLOOMBERG
A supporter cheers at a campaign rally for Sanders in Madison, Wis., where he drew 10,000 people.
“Sanders for now has become the candidate of progressive New Hampshire Democrats and progressives elsewhere,” said University of New Hampshire Professor Dante Scala.
Sanders’ campaign recognizes the challenge of expanding his base of support past hardcore white liberal activists.
“He’s quickly rising in the early state polls where voters are actually paying attention,” Sanders strategist Tad Devine said. “Now it’s the question of can we expand the scope of his appeal to the broad constituencies of the Democratic Party — African-American voters, Latino voters, women, young voters.”
Sanders recently addressed the National Association of Elected and Appointed Latino Officials, is heading to the National Council for La Raza’s annual convention next week and will soon head to the Southern Christian Leadership Conference’s annual gathering. Devine points out he has a long civil rights history, dating back to his getting arrested at 1960s protests.
Sanders’ campaign thinks he can make Clinton squirm by forcing her to respond to policy proposals like free college education and raising taxes on the wealthy. Clinton refused to say whether she agreed with Sanders’ call to raise taxes on the wealthy, instead promising to outline her economic proposals on Monday.
But it’s not clear that the Clinton operation is all that alarmed. Her campaign has been girding from the start for a challenge from the left. She has made a point to embrace economic populism and to focus on issues key to minority groups, who will be key players in later primary states. And her campaign is gearing up with a massive ground game — her field operation in Iowa alone has almost as much staff as Sanders’ entire campaign.
Democratic observers remain skeptical that Sanders has any chance to catch Clinton.
“For a while, it has been a foregone conclusion in many people’s minds that she will be the nominee, and any time you inject some excitement into the race it takes on a life of its own. How deep that goes I don’t know,” said New Hampshire AFL-CIO President Glenn Brackett.
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